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| Took me about 5 minutes to make this in Paint. I'm so clever. |
If it was totally up to me, I would already be in the hospital. I might already have been through a three-week cycle of IVAC. If I was diagnosing and treating myself, I would just look at a path report from the NIH, see the word "Burkitt's," and treat myself with the chemo more commonly used for Burkitt's lymphoma. Even if there was some dissent, I'd probably err on the side of overtreating.
But of course, I'm not treating myself. And thank God for that. The issue is nowhere near that simple, and that's why I'm in the unenviable position of having to make a life-altering decision based on the analyses of others who understand the issue more than I ever will.
Here's what I do understand: costs and benefits. This separates me from most politicians. But it will serve me well here.
So here's my basic goal: I do not want to do this again. I don't want a "wait and see" approach. I don't care much about short term pain or discomfort. My job will be there whenever I am. And I'll probably be able to make things work financially (since I would be locked into a lease without any source of income).
But I'm also not going to put myself through a horrific course of treatment - two, three-week stints in the hospital plus several weeks of recover - for shits and giggles. Doing this "just to be safe" doesn't cut it. The benefits have to outweigh the risks for me.
So here are the main issues for me: 1) The percentage chance that I am currently "cured," i.e., the chance that this is staying in remission, and 2) The percentage chance that I would be "cured" if I underwent more treatment, and 3) The percentage chance of risk associated with more treatment.
And then there's my own analysis: How much would my chance of being cured have to increase to get me to do more treatment? I probably wouldn't put myself through hell for a 1% gain; I definitely would for a 25% gain.
On top of this, there are a million little things that go into the analysis: How comfortable I am with the doctor making the recommendation; how experienced the doctor is; the reasons for their recommendation; whether they've examined me directly; how many doctors agree with a particular recommendation; the consequences of each one, and on and on.
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So here's where I'm coming from: I think there needs to be about a 10%* net gain in my chance of cure before I sign on to more treatment. Maybe a little lower. If, when all is said and done, I'm convinced that doing more treatment bumps my chances by that amount, I'll do it. If I don't think the benefit is that high, I won't.
(*This isn't just a random number. By "net gain" I mean the amount by which the benefit outweighs the risk (so a 5% gain minus a 5% risk gives me no net benefit). I figure, with all the uncertainty, there's a certain margin of error involved in this. So a small benefit - 3-5% or so - is rather negligible. And while this is a medical decision, my desire not to go through more of this stuff, my desire to move to DC, and my desire to not lose tens of thousands of dollars (by not working for several months) does have some impact on this. A 1-2% gain is not worth the hassle. And, in a more complicated medical issue, if I do relapse, the cancer could still respond to the more intense treatment. If we fire that bullet now and I relapse, the cancer would probably be chemo-resistant. That's worth another couple percentage points. So if I'm going to put myself through hell, the benefit has to be large enough to outweigh the uncertainty, risks, and intangible drawbacks of treatment).
Of course, this all depends on the three critical issues I've discussed above. I've come a long way in figuring out how I'm going to figure this out, so I'm finally able to have the same discussions (and ask the same questions) to all my doctors. I've discussed this issue extensively with Dr. Anderson and Dr. Li so far.
And wouldn't you know, they're pretty much in agreement, especially on issues 2 and 3. Both Dr. Anderson and Dr. Li would probably agree that my cure rate would be exceptionally high with more treatment - probably around 95%. And they would both agree that the chance of running into serious problems would be about 5% - low, but certainly higher than most other forms of chemotherapy.
So that leaves us with issue 1: the chance that I'm fine and cured right now. And that's where the docs differ. Dr. Anderson thinks the chance is "into the nineties;" Dr. Li thinks the chance is around 80%.
This - the roughly 10% gap - makes all the difference in the world. There's no point in undergoing a brutal course of treatment with a 5% chance of growing me a third arm for a 1% gain in the cure rate. There's no point in trading a 5% gain for a 5% risk. But if we're looking at a 15% gain, then it makes much more sense to me. To put it another way, think of playing a game of Russian roulette, and the difference between playing with a 5-barrel revolver (a 20% chance of relapse) or a 10-barrel revolver (10% chance of relapse). I know which gun I'd like to play with.
Making things more awesome is this: Both docs fully admit that there's no real data on my particular form, that they might be wrong (not necessarily wrong, but they both admit that the difference between 80% and 90% is not great, and that the real chance is probably somewhere in that range), and that, if they used the other doc's analysis (if Dr. Li thought my cure rate was 90%, or Dr. Anderson though my rate was 80%), they would probably switch their recommendations.
My doctors seem to be on different parts of the same page. I'm not sure if this is good or bad.
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I think what is unequivocally good, though, is the fact that I now understand this. Here's what both doctors are doing: They're looking at the statistics, and then trying to apply them to my case.
That seems simple enough, but I am a nightmare for cancer statistics. I'm young. I'm otherwise healthy. I don't have any number of associated risk factors. I tolerated treatment well. My treatment was effective. Officially, I have no clue what type of lymphoma I have. But what matters is not the name, but that all three path labs (Henry Ford, U-M, and NIH) have observed the same things. And it's a very rare type. I was early stage. There was no liver, bone marrow, or intestinal involvement. The tumor was not near my neck or spine. I was diagnosed and treated very quickly. I had R-CHOP instead of CHOP. I was dose-dense (on 14-day cycles instead of 21). And so on.
So Dr. Anderson looks at the statistics, takes all of the above (and more) into account, and says my chance of never having to deal with this again is about 90%. Dr. Li does the exact same thing and comes out a little lower. Quite frankly, I'm surprised at how close their conclusions are.
So I take my discussions with my doctors and think of more things: U-M is highly ranked; go with them. My case has been through Henry Ford's tumor board twice, which gives me the indirect recommendations of numerous oncologists, pathologists and so on; go with them. Dr. Li is a lymphoma specialist; go with her. Dr. Anderson is 25 years older and has probably seen four times as many lymphoma cases; go with him. Dr. Kaminski (at U-M) is a recognized lymphoma expert; go with him. Dr. Al-Katib is a recognized lymphoma expert; go with him. I'd rather err on the side of caution; go with U-M. But Dr. Anderson has been with me since day 1 and knows my case better than anybody else; go with him. I have two doctors who are telling me I'm fine versus one who recommends more treatment; go with the two docs. But the consequences if those two docs are wrong are greater; go with U-M.
As you can see, this little game stopped being fun a while ago. I can't get anywhere in the current scenario. It's not that I won't analyze the situation until I get the other recommendations. It's that I have analyzed this to the end of the earth, and I absolutely cannot decide what to do.
I'm not doing more treatment "just to be safe." First of all, there's nothing "safe" about one of the most intense chemotherapy regimens available. Second, the intangibles I listed above - getting to DC, going to work, starting my life - have
some impact. Third, "just to be safe" is a cop-out statement. If you recommend a course of action, back it up. (I originally thought U-M was taking the "just to be safe" approach, but I went up to talk to Dr. Li for an hour and discovered her rationale. This is my big fear with Sloan-Kettering and Stanford - that I'll get a "just to be safe" recommendation from some administrative assistant and won't be able to get into the rationale with the actual doctor, which I'm more than capable of understanding and which I really need right now).
So that's all I need. I have all the tools necessary here, I know the issue, I know what I want...I just need something to tip the balance. If I get one doctor who makes a good case for doing more treatment, I'll probably do that. If I get two docs who say I'm fine, then there's no way I can decide to put myself through more - and more awful - treatment if roughly 10 doctors say that's not a good idea.
And even though I'm in a really tough spot right now, I'm very happy about this: I left it all on the field. There will be no way in hell anyone could say that I left a stone unturned during this ordeal. Between me as an active patient, and the number and caliber of doctors that have reviewed my case, I am confident that I have received better treatment and a better evaluation of my case than virtually any other cancer patient in the world. So whatever result that analysis produces, so be it. It will be the right one. And that will go a long way toward my ability to not spend every day looking over my shoulder, wondering what might have been.